Meet Nikolai Ponomarev, postdoctoral researcher at Aalto University — and one of the people helping the EFP program see the bigger picture.

While many EFP researchers are working hands-on in the lab, Nikolai's role is different. As part of Work Package 9, he takes data from lab-scale experiments across the program and builds mathematical models of novel pulping processes — then uses those models to evaluate each concept's potential through techno-economic assessment and life cycle analysis.

The goal: find pulping processes that deliver higher yield than kraft, with competitive costs, lower chemical and water consumption, and reduced CO₂ emissions. Kraft pulp — the current industry standard — serves as the benchmark.

Results so far are encouraging. The minimum selling price of pulp produced by novel methods is competitive with kraft, and global warming potential is at a similar level or lower. Pathways for reducing energy consumption further have also been identified.

"We are still at lab scale — there is a lot of work to do," he says. Uncertainty is high, and no single concept has yet emerged as a clear winner. What the modeling does offer is direction: identifying which parameters matter most (yield, liquid-to-wood ratio, energy use) and helping research teams understand where to focus.

Tools like one-variable-at-a-time sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation help pinpoint the hotspots — the variables with the biggest impact on cost and environmental performance.

Nikolai describes his work as something like technical, economic, and environmental consulting — analytical rather than experimental, but no less essential. "In the result, you can have a clear way how you can improve the process, and you can see what is promising from an industrial implementation point of view."

The journey from lab experiment to commercial plant — via mathematical model, pilot plant, and demonstration plant — is a long one. But mapping that journey, and showing which paths are worth walking, is exactly what this work is for.